Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2254 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 2254 · DFW → IAD

departs 7:24 PM CT · arrives 11:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2254 · DFW → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?