Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2581 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 2581 · DFW → MKE

departs 9:12 AM CT · arrives 11:50 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MKE?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MKE (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling533 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2581 · DFW → MKE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKE?