Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2639 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 2639 · DFW → PVR

departs 8:37 AM CT · arrives 10:18 AM CST

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at PVR more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PVR?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PVR that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PVR (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2639 · DFW → PVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to PVR?