AA 2778 · PHX → BOS

departs 1:44 PM MT · arrives 9:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ BOS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

BOS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2778 · PHX → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?