tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2858 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

AA 2858 · JAX → PHX

departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 9:21 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 39h before departure
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
14% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 6.3d 2d Now 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to PHX?

  1. On time or early
    85%
  2. 15–30 min late
    3%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    6%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    3%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    2%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.