Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2864 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 2864 · DFW → LAS

departs 3:28 PM CT · arrives 4:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±5 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2864 · DFW → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?