Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2874 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 2874 · DFW → CUN

departs 9:55 AM CT · arrives 12:46 PM EST

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at CUN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CUN?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CUN (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2874 · DFW → CUN

Odds over time

How late will it get to CUN?