Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2925 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 2925 · DFW → LGA

departs 6:08 AM CT · arrives 10:48 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2925 · DFW → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?