Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3050 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 3050 · DFW → MFE

departs 8:50 AM CT · arrives 10:38 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MFE?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MFE (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3050 · DFW → MFE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MFE?