Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3089 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 3089 · DFW → VPS

departs 9:40 AM CT · arrives 11:38 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at VPS more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to VPS?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at VPS

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

VPS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3089 · DFW → VPS

Odds over time

How late will it get to VPS?