Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3221 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 3221 · ORD → LGA

departs 12:52 PM CT · arrives 4:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3221 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?