Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3227 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 3227 · MSY → PHX

departs 2:36 PM CT · arrives 4:03 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from MSY are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3227 · MSY → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?