Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3244 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 3244 · MFE → DFW

departs 6:42 AM CT · arrives 8:30 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from MFE are usually not late

Weather at each end

MFE (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3244 · MFE → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?