Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 456SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS
AA 456 · ORD → LGA
departs 3:11 PM CT · arrives 6:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 160h before departure
Typical odds
Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Tuesday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
65%chance · ±38 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARELow. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
14%
Cancelled
9%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.