Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 484 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 484 · GEG → DFW

departs 5:54 AM PT · arrives 11:29 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ GEG is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from GEG are usually not late

Weather at each end

GEG (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 484 · GEG → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?