Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 524 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 524 · DFW → IAD

departs 10:13 AM CT · arrives 2:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 524 · DFW → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?