Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 570 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AA 570 · PHX → SAT

departs 12:21 PM MT · arrives 4:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SAT that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

SAT (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 570 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?