Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 757 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 757 · DFW → SEA

departs 12:17 PM CT · arrives 2:31 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 757 · DFW → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?