Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 840 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 840 · LGA → DFW

departs 11:33 AM ET · arrives 2:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 11am departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 840 · LGA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?