Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 866 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AA 866 · ORD → PHX

departs 10:09 AM CT · arrives 12:00 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling8,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 866 · ORD → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?