AA 888 · BOS → ORD

departs 4:54 PM ET · arrives 6:56 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling8,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 888 · BOS → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?