Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 732 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AC 732 · YUL → LGA

departs 1:10 PM EDT · arrives 2:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at YUL that day

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YUL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.30 in

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 732 · YUL → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?