Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 758 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AC 758 · SFO → YUL

departs 11:10 AM PT · arrives 7:33 PM EDT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at YUL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YUL?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at YUL that day

↑ 11am departures from SFO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YUL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 758 · SFO → YUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to YUL?