Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR FRANCE · FLIGHT AF 10 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AF 10 · CDG → JFK

departs 6:30 PM CEST · arrives 8:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CDG

Weather at each end

CDG (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AF 10 · CDG → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?