Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1403 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AS 1403 · PDX → SFO

departs 10:46 AM PT · arrives 12:34 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts2 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1403 · PDX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?