Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1418 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 1418 · LAX → GDL

departs 10:31 AM PT · arrives 2:44 PM CST

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at GDL more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GDL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GDL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1418 · LAX → GDL

Odds over time

How late will it get to GDL?