Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 201 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 201 · IAD → SAN

departs 7:23 PM ET · arrives 9:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 201 · IAD → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?