Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 218 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AS 218 · ATL → SEA

departs 4:18 PM ET · arrives 6:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 218 · ATL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?