Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 235 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AS 235 · SFO → PDX

departs 11:38 AM PT · arrives 1:26 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts2 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 235 · SFO → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?