Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 245 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 245 · SEA → OGG

departs 8:05 AM PT · arrives 11:19 AM HT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ 8am departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 245 · SEA → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?