Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 354 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 354 · MSO → SEA

departs 7:02 AM MT · arrives 7:30 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSO

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ 7am departures from MSO are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MSO (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 354 · MSO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?