Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 440 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 440 · ANC → SEA

departs 10:21 AM AKT · arrives 2:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ 10am departures from ANC are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 440 · ANC → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?