AS 460 · SEA → BOS

took off 3:46 PM PT · expected to land 11:21 PM ET (scheduled 3:36 PM PT → 11:59 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

BOS (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 460 · SEA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?