Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 517 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AS 517 · FLL → SEA

departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 9:59 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from FLL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 517 · FLL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?