Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 60 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 60 · KTN → SEA

departs 8:56 AM AKDT · arrives 11:54 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ This flight has been late 15% of the time recently

Weather at each end

KTN (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.57 in

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 60 · KTN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?