Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 7006 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 7006 · SEA → JNU

departs 9:03 AM PT · arrives 10:38 AM AKDT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at JNU more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JNU?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JNU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 7006 · SEA → JNU

Odds over time

How late will it get to JNU?