Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 717 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 717 · SEA → LGB

departs 11:21 AM PT · arrives 1:57 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGB?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGB (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 717 · SEA → LGB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGB?