Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 770 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 770 · SAN → SFO

departs 10:54 AM PT · arrives 12:29 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 770 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?