Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 777 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AS 777 · PAE → LAS

departs 10:43 AM PT · arrives 1:09 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ This flight has been late 8% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PAE

Weather at each end

PAE (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 777 · PAE → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?