Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 803 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13

AS 803 · LAX → HNL

departs 10:05 AM PT · arrives 12:58 PM HT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 803 · LAX → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?