Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 83 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow

AS 83 · SEA → ANC

departs 10:49 AM PT · arrives 1:30 PM AKT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 83 · SEA → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?