Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
B6 1578 · LAS → BOS
departs 10:36 AM PT · arrives 6:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 77%
Mon 10/12 47%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 31%
Thu 10/15 30%
Fri 10/16 37%
Sat 10/17 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at BOS that day
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.