Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 204
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
B6 204 · BDA → BOS
departs 1:05 PM ADT · arrives 2:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Mon 10/12 44%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 29%
Thu 10/15 17%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sat 10/17 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±3 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave BDA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at BOS that day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BDA (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.