B6 251 · BOS → MCO

departs 8:42 PM ET · arrives 11:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±2 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ 8pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 251 · BOS → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?