B6 451 · BOS → MCO

departs 7:41 PM ET · arrives 10:42 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts +21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ 7pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 45% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 451 · BOS → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?