B6 8590 · YMX → BOS

departs 12:55 PM EDT · arrives 2:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at BOS that day

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at YMX that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 12pm departures from YMX are usually not late

Weather at each end

YMX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.93 in

BOS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 8590 · YMX → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?