Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4226
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4226 · LRD → IAH
departs 7:10 AM CT · arrives 8:34 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Mon 10/12 11%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 13%
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LRD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LRD (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.