Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4238
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13
C5 4238 · IAH → LFT
departs 12:04 PM CT · arrives 1:13 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Mon 10/12 15%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at LFT more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LFT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at LFT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LFT?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at IAH that day
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
LFT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.09 in
LFT (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.4 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.