Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4257
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
C5 4257 · IAD → TYS
departs 8:55 AM ET · arrives 10:34 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15 15%
Fri 10/16 15%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at TYS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TYS?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↑
C5's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
TYS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.