Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 6, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4261
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 13 Tomorrow
C5 4261 · BTV → IAD
departs 2:39 PM ET · arrives 4:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Tue 10/13
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15 16%
Fri 10/16 24%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BTV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at BTV that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
2pm departures from BTV are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BTV usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BTV (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.44 in
IAD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.